Forecast Confidence and Range Governance Director

The mandate

The Forecast Governance Committee seeks independent advice on expressing uncertainty in a way that improves action rather than diluting accountability. Single-point forecasts imply certainty the evidence does not support, while loosely described ranges can become shelters for poor ownership. The adviser will establish calibrated confidence conventions and decision triggers around them.

The standing question is whether each forecast's range corresponds to observable uncertainty and whether management actions change appropriately as confidence shifts. Three days a week cover analytical review, monthly committee participation and two calibration workshops using historical forecast vintages.

This appointment provides no line authority, forecast approval or model validation opinion. The Director may challenge range construction, recommend confidence language and refer unsupported certainty or width through the Chair. Management owns the forecast and actions; governance forums own release.

The seven-month term ends after calibration is observed across multiple horizons and the method transfers. Renewal requires a separately authorised issue. Conflicts include prior authorship of models under review or engagements that reward a particular forecast posture; these must be declared before access and managed through recusal.

What you will own

• Define confidence vocabulary, range types and minimum evidence appropriate to short, medium and long forecast horizons.
• Backtest historical ranges for coverage, directional bias, width, stability and decision usefulness.
• Distinguish aleatory uncertainty, knowledge gaps, owner judgement and unresolved control defects in range construction.
• Recommend trigger rules linking movement in expected outcome, range width and tail exposure to specific governance actions.
• Review twelve forecast submissions and record whether range evidence supports the stated confidence.
• Facilitate two calibration workshops where contributors score cases independently and reconcile material differences.
• Establish anti-gaming controls preventing unjustifiably wide ranges, hidden overlays and retroactive confidence changes.
• Transfer the review method and calibration examples to committee and FP&A owners.

Candidate qualifications

• At least 17 years in FP&A, forecast science, risk analytics or governance advisory work.
• Evidence of introducing ranges that changed management action and later demonstrated credible calibration.
• Expertise in interval coverage, bias, confidence, scenario distinction, tail exposure and decision thresholds.
• A case where you narrowed or widened a forecast range against executive preference because evidence required it.
• Experience separating model uncertainty from control weakness or absent ownership.
• Committee advisory skill that preserves management responsibility for the point estimate and response.
• Complete disclosure of model authorship or reward relationships that may bias confidence advice.

Working terms and boundaries

• The engagement is three days per week for seven months, including monthly committee and two Prague calibration workshops.
• There is no line authority, forecast approval, model validation or ownership of management actions.
• Conflicts are reviewed at onboarding and before each model family is examined; the Chair controls recusal.
• Rebuilding forecast models and remediating source controls fall outside scope, though their effect on confidence must be stated.
• Closure requires twelve reviews, credible backtesting, adopted trigger rules and independent internal calibration.

Application

Applications for this mandate are received in one way only: through the India Board Terminal's application process. It is automated end to end. Your Executive Passport travels to the mandate holder in its confidential form, your answers to the three questions below are read before anything else in your file, and every stage that follows is recorded on your applications page.

There is no address to write to and no intermediary to call. The mandate holder reads what the Terminal delivers and nothing else, which is what keeps the process the same for every applicant and keeps your name out of it until you release it. Applications close on 11 October 2026. Mandate reference FPA-ADV-2026-PRG-47.