Case 01
Removing captive supply from the opportunity I had asked us to pursue
In 2016 I supported a market paper describing ₹120 crore of demand as an opportunity for independent suppliers. Within that account, ₹45 crore was captive internal supply. It was not available through the merchant relationships assumed by the proposal. The corrected merchant estimate was ₹75 crore, still an estimate of a market rather than a forecast of Lerqavhi's own revenue.
The paper informed a proposed ₹36 crore expansion. We held that proposal and spent ₹38 lakh on research and replanning. The investment had not been committed, so I do not describe its face value as money saved. Nor do I turn the corrected market boundary into proof that the enterprise could never serve any part of the excluded activity under a different future arrangement.
I had allowed a demand total to answer a more specific commercial question. The relevant issue was not merely how much of the product category existed. It was which buyers an independent supplier could pursue through the route and relationships the proposal contemplated. The original account gave the investment a larger apparent opportunity than that defined route supported.
I worked with commercial and finance colleagues to restate the boundary and reconsider the recommendation. Investment authority remained with the authorised decision-makers. My responsibility was to present an opportunity account they could assess, including the error in the earlier version and the cost of correcting it.
The outcome was a held proposal and a more limited market estimate, not a completed new strategy or realised benefit. I retain this case because the mistake was mine to explain. A persuasive strategic paper should let its reader see the relationship between total activity, accessible opportunity and the enterprise's own possible participation, rather than allow the largest number to stand for all three.