The 2022 investment review proposed replacing forty 0.8 MW machines, 32 MW in total, with twelve 4 MW machines totalling 48 MW. The development presentation led with a mature-year estimate of 150 GWh compared with 62 GWh for the existing fleet. Both figures were estimates, but they did not explain the transition. The proposal required dismantling, construction and commissioning before the replacement assets could earn. Finance asked for that interval to appear in the same period as the energy comparison.
I requested an eighteen-month account for both alternatives. Retaining the old assets was estimated to deliver 93 GWh over that period. The replacement path, including a seven-month transition gap and its ramp-up assumptions, forecast 124 GWh. Those figures made the relevant forecast difference 31 GWh over eighteen months, not a claim that the mature-year difference of 88 GWh would be available immediately. Qualified technical and commercial owners remained responsible for yield assumptions, site arrangements and the conditions for proceeding.
The board approved the ₹264 crore project in stages, with transition funding and review points stated. This was a specific multi-year investment approval, separate from the current annual capital programme quoted elsewhere in the profile. Development colleagues disliked the less dramatic opening comparison and the additional conditions. I regarded those as necessary to understand the commitment rather than as an argument against replacing old machinery.
The first eighteen months produced 118 GWh of metered export, six below the 124 GWh forecast. The old-asset counterfactual remained 93 GWh in the review. Subtracting it gives a modelled difference of 25 GWh, not a directly measured causal gain: we did not operate both alternatives on the same site. We retained the shortfall and examined its causes before the next stage. The larger installed capacity did not erase it. I would establish the common comparison period before selecting the presentation's headline, so that a compelling future annual figure does not become the account everyone is reluctant to revise.