Case 01
Letting an SGD8.4 million campaign finish its economic story
The first campaign dashboard showed SGD8.4 million of customer orders. The digital team wanted to repeat the promotion quickly, while its audience response remained strong. The initial discussion used the order figure beside costs that had already been collected. I asked the team to hold the repeat decision until we could see the defined cohort through cancellations and its normal return window. The question was not whether the campaign had attracted demand, but what the company retained from serving it.
Customer-service and fulfilment colleagues helped reconcile cancelled and returned orders. Net sales settled at SGD7.2 million after SGD1.2 million of cancellations and refunds. Product cost relating to retained sales, after the recovery treatment for returned goods, was SGD4.1 million. Fulfilment, payment and return-handling costs totalled SGD1 million, with SGD1.3 million of campaign media expenditure. That left SGD800,000 of management contribution before central expenses. It was not the company's statutory profit for the period.
Some commercial colleagues felt the delay risked losing momentum. We therefore continued ordinary trading while postponing the proposed repeat promotion, rather than stopping all activity. The review found that a small set of bulky products had created disproportionate return-handling work. Product and service teams examined presentation and packaging issues; finance did not infer the cause of every return from its cost. The account kept those operating questions open instead of using the revised margin as a complete explanation.
The board accepted a narrower follow-up test rather than an immediate repeat at the original scale. That choice gave up some possible short-term order volume and required additional preparation. The first campaign remained commercially positive, and we did not relabel it a failure to make the review appear valuable. Its contribution was simply less than an order-based account implied.
I took away a discipline about timing. A commercial decision may need an early view, but that view should identify the costs and customer choices still unresolved. Waiting for every fact is not always practical; pretending that the opening dashboard is the final result is not a sound substitute.
I would require the campaign’s full economic boundary at the first approval meeting, before the headline sales expectation becomes the reference against which every omitted cost must compete.