In 2017 I supported a refurbishment proposal with ₹10 crore possible revenue and ₹7.7 crore estimated cost, implying a 23% contribution margin. The presentation combined an authorised ₹8.2 crore scope, costing ₹7.2 crore, with proposed variations worth ₹1.8 crore and associated cost of ₹50 lakh. The contract sponsor believed the variations were commercially likely. I had allowed that confidence to enter the headline calculation without making its unresolved basis prominent enough for the decision on additional resources.
The operating team wanted to secure people and materials early. The CEO asked whether the base work alone justified that commitment. I returned with two clearly labelled scenarios and accepted responsibility for the first presentation. On the authorised scope, contribution was ₹1 crore against ₹8.2 crore revenue, approximately 12.2%. The proposed variation could still be discussed, but it was not treated as an agreed improvement to the base economics. Management deferred the additional resource commitment while the commercial options were reviewed with the customer and relevant specialists.
The cost of that decision was delay and a less attractive immediate proposal. It also meant the workshop could not assume that everything in the combined plan would arrive as authorised work. We retained the base scope, proposed changes, cost assumptions and responsible decision-makers separately. This case does not claim that the customer ultimately accepted the variation, that a particular amount was recognised in statutory accounts or that the deferral produced a measured saving. The result was a decision based on the actual boundary of the commitment, with the unresolved commercial opportunity still visible.
I would now ask for that separation before the first management presentation. The finance team should not wait for a board question to disclose that the strongest margin depends on a conversation still in progress. My error was not the subtraction or percentage calculation. It was allowing two different states of commercial agreement to share one unqualified headline. A plausible upside case belongs in the discussion, but management must be able to see what it can rely on before it commits resources that will remain its responsibility if the hoped-for scope never arrives.