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A prediction must be tested with the past it could have known
A separate test population cannot rescue a forecast supplied with post-event repair knowledge. The decision moment belongs in the definition of the task.
Read the essayAnamika Veqzari / Chief Data Officer
Read the evidence before accepting the headline
Perspectives from a life in leadership.
The archive.
Prediction timing and executive scrutiny
- Open essay
A prediction must be tested with the past it could have known
A separate test population cannot rescue a forecast supplied with post-event repair knowledge. The decision moment belongs in the definition of the task.
Observation limits in reliability evidence
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A component that has not failed still has a history
Completed failures cannot stand in for every unit under observation. Reliability evidence needs the duration and reason that each history ends.
Alert evaluation and service capacity
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A high accuracy score can conceal a difficult alert queue
Rare-event evaluation should show the work created by false alerts and the events missed, alongside the familiar overall percentage.