Forecast Bias Remediation Director

The mandate

This interim assignment addresses persistent, directional forecast error that has survived routine accuracy reporting. Aggregate misses are debated after the event, but the process does not reliably separate incentive-driven optimism, stale assumptions, timing convention, asymmetric challenge and genuine uncertainty. Mobilisation is required within fifteen business days.

The Director will establish an error taxonomy, reconstruct twelve forecast vintages and identify where bias first enters, where it compounds and why existing reviews fail to correct it. Remediation will combine calibrated ranges, owner scorecards, independent challenge and changed decision rules rather than a blanket demand for lower forecasts.

Temporary powers cover methodology, forecast version control, bias review, escalation and release-quality recommendation. The appointee cannot change incentive arrangements, remove budget owners or alter operating targets. Recommendations on those matters will be documented for the appropriate decision makers, with financial effects modelled but not executed.

The assignment ends when a permanent forecast owner has led three cycles, bias measures are stable enough for interpretation and corrective interventions operate without the interim leader. A signed handover must distinguish corrected structural causes from residual uncertainty that should not be managed away.

What you will own

• Reconstruct forecast vintages at comparable horizons and calculate signed error, absolute error, timing movement and range coverage by accountable area.
• Create an error taxonomy distinguishing information arrival, model weakness, ownership omission, timing rule, deliberate stretch and unforecastable event.
• Identify the earliest point at which each recurring bias becomes detectable and map the review or evidence control that should intervene.
• Introduce calibrated forecast ranges and measure whether actual outcomes fall within them at the stated frequency.
• Establish owner scorecards that reward transparent uncertainty and learning, avoiding incentives to game a single accuracy percentage.
• Recommend governance changes where target setting and unbiased forecasting are being conflated, documenting decisions outside interim authority.
• Run monthly bias councils that select corrective actions, assign owners and evaluate whether prior interventions altered error behavior.
• Prepare a permanent leader to explain residual bias and defend appropriate uncertainty rather than promising mechanically perfect forecasts.

Candidate qualifications

• At least 14 years in FP&A and forecasting, including Director-level recovery work involving behavioural as well as technical causes.
• A documented bias-remediation case with vintage analysis, signed error measures, interventions and subsequent performance over several cycles.
• Expertise in forecast calibration, range coverage, error decomposition, backtesting, seasonality and the governance effects of targets.
• Evidence of distinguishing optimism bias from legitimate asymmetric risk without humiliating or silencing business contributors.
• Experience protecting unbiased forecasts when incentive or target processes created pressure to publish a preferred answer.
• Strong handover discipline demonstrated through successor-led councils, documented error logic and tested escalation routines.
• Availability to work on-site in Johannesburg for the entire core term and begin within the stated mobilisation window.

Working terms and boundaries

• The seven-month term is delivered five days weekly; any two-month extension must address a named transfer deficiency, not continued analysis.
• Interim authority covers forecast controls and bias governance but excludes incentive design, personnel action and ownership of operating targets.
• Historical reconstruction will use only approved records; absence of evidence must be labelled rather than estimated into a preferred conclusion.
• The successor assumes council leadership by month five and must complete three accepted forecast cycles before final release.
• Closure depends on an operating bias taxonomy, calibrated ranges, recorded actions and a CFO-approved statement of residual uncertainty.

Application

Applications for this mandate are received in one way only: through the India Board Terminal's application process. It is automated end to end. Your Executive Passport travels to the mandate holder in its confidential form, your answers to the three questions below are read before anything else in your file, and every stage that follows is recorded on your applications page.

There is no address to write to and no intermediary to call. The mandate holder reads what the Terminal delivers and nothing else, which is what keeps the process the same for every applicant and keeps your name out of it until you release it. Applications close on 10 October 2026. Mandate reference FPA-INT-2026-JNB-14.