Forecast Uncertainty and Scenario Calibration Director

The mandate

The Interim Director will develop quantitative forecasting capabilities including uncertainty quantification, forecast error decomposition and scenario calibration discipline. The six-month assignment covers a live forecast cycle, uncertainty redesign, outcome review and successor proof. It excludes ownership of the business plan or executive targets.

In the first two weeks, the Director will trace representative forecasts through target definition, information set, horizon, method, override and aggregation. Authority includes holding unsupported overrides, requiring benchmark comparisons, setting error-analysis standards and escalating output whose uncertainty is materially misstated. Final forecast assumptions and management commitments remain with designated executives.

The work must distinguish irreducible volatility, model misspecification, structural change, input error, judgmental override and aggregation cancellation. Prediction intervals will be tested for empirical coverage and decision relevance, while scenarios will be tied to coherent mechanisms rather than arbitrary percentage shocks. The interim will make forecast humility operational without rendering decisions directionless.

By month three, baseline, interval and scenario standards should be approved and applied to a pilot forecast. A subsequent live cycle will test calibration, override governance and error decomposition. The nominated successor must respond to a seeded structural break, decide whether recalibration or model replacement is warranted and explain implications to finance governance.

Handover is accepted after the Chief Financial Officer approves the forecast protocol, scenario catalogue, calibration evidence, override register and successor assessment. Long-term model build, planning ownership, target negotiation, platform implementation and permanent staffing are outside scope. Extension is restricted to completion of the agreed successor test.

What you will own

• Define forecast targets, horizons, information cut-offs and loss functions aligned to actual decisions.
• Establish naive and transparent benchmarks before accepting complexity as incremental value.
• Calibrate intervals and scenarios using empirical coverage, tail behaviour and decision consequence.
• Govern expert overrides with hypothesis, magnitude, evidence, outcome and learning review.
• Decompose error into model, input, structural, override and aggregation components.
• Detect structural change using multiple signals and distinguish recalibration from full redevelopment need.
• Complete a live-cycle proof and test the successor through a designed regime-change case.
• Preserve planning, target, technology and permanent-organisation boundaries.

Candidate qualifications

• Demonstrate interim recovery of high-consequence forecasting under a non-negotiable decision calendar.
• Describe a complex model that failed to beat a suitable simple benchmark out of sample.
• Show how interval miscalibration changed the decision presentation or operating response.
• Evidence error decomposition that exposed an override or aggregation issue hidden by total accuracy.
• Explain a structural-break diagnosis and why you chose recalibration, replacement or no immediate change.
• Provide a scenario design linked to causal mechanism rather than arbitrary stress percentages.
• Show a successor successfully handling a new regime case before your departure.

Working terms and boundaries

• The six-month engagement runs five days weekly and covers baseline, pilot, live proof and transfer.
• Day rates include scheduled travel and forecast-cycle intensity; exceptional travel requires approval.
• The Director controls analytical evidence and review but cannot own the plan, targets or executive commitments.
• Platform build, long-term redevelopment, negotiation and permanent team design are excluded.
• A one-month extension requires an incomplete successor-led live forecast and scenario test.

Application

Applications for this mandate are received in one way only: through the India Board Terminal's application process. It is automated end to end. Your Executive Passport travels to the mandate holder in its confidential form, your answers to the three questions below are read before anything else in your file, and every stage that follows is recorded on your applications page.

There is no address to write to and no intermediary to call. The mandate holder reads what the Terminal delivers and nothing else, which is what keeps the process the same for every applicant and keeps your name out of it until you release it. Applications close on 10 October 2026. Mandate reference QNT-INT-2026-OSL-22.