Case I
Declining thirty-two invitations while keeping the opportunity cost visible
In 2021, the commercial team faced eighty-four tender invitations during a defined planning round. Sales wanted to preserve access to every account. Operations questioned whether several proposed shipment patterns matched the service we could credibly arrange. My concern was that marketing effort would follow the size of the invitation rather than the quality of the fit, leaving proposal teams stretched across opportunities with very different operating demands.
I proposed a joint review before full submissions were commissioned. Sales retained the bid decision, operations assessed the service conditions and finance examined the commercial assumptions. I was accountable for the marketing recommendation and the use of proposal resources. Thirty-two invitations were declined and fifty-two proceeded. The rejected group described US$96 million of prospective annual shipper freight spend. That was not our revenue and did not establish the amount we would have won by bidding.
The trade-off was real: saying no could reduce access to buyers and remove a chance to learn through the tender process. I therefore asked for a reason on each refusal and a condition that could justify reconsideration. Nine of the fifty-two submissions produced awards. We reported both the starting population and the selected population, rather than displaying only a more attractive conversion rate. We did not calculate a fictional profit from work never awarded.
The enterprise gained an explicit account of where pursuit effort would go and why. It did not gain proof that every refusal was correct. Looking back, I would have scheduled a review of declined opportunities at the outset instead of treating that as a later learning exercise. A selection policy needs a way to discover its own mistakes, especially when the missing outcome makes the decision easy to defend indefinitely.