01
What could the insurer know at first notice?
I would begin with an invented completed claim file and ask participants which of its fields could have been used when the claim first arrived. The discussion would distinguish information that eventually became accurate from information available at the earlier decision point. The 120000-claim example contains 18000 records with later settlement fields, providing a concrete way to examine why a persuasive replay may answer the wrong historical question. Participants would consider the sponsor’s wish to preserve a clear progress result, the decision to withhold that claim and the work needed to reconstruct eligible inputs. I would leave model assessment with its responsible owners and avoid presenting the reconstruction as a performance improvement. The session would use fictional material throughout, with no policyholder records. This is a proposed format, not a delivered event or an invitation to inspect an actual insurer’s systems. Its purpose would be to make the timing assumption understandable to leaders who need to question an evaluation without becoming its modelling team.