Julian Aldervane

The journal · Energy development commitment

The work already done cannot supply the next project’s missing commercial basis

I revisit a solar proposal withdrawn before construction, retaining prior expense, the argument for continuation and the distinction between stopping a project and claiming a financial result.

A development proposal acquires a history before it acquires an operating asset. People have spent time, relationships have been formed and money has been committed to understanding the opportunity. That history deserves respect. It does not by itself establish that the next stage has a sufficient commercial basis. I want the institution to examine what it would be choosing now, while keeping the work already done visible rather than either using it to compel continuation or dismissing it as though it never mattered.

In our fictional 2025 solar case at Orveldran Energy, a 300 MW proposal had consumed US$8.2 million in development spending and sought US$22 million for the next stage. The commercial basis no longer fitted the direction we were prepared to pursue, and we withdrew before construction. The prior expense remained part of the record. The case claims neither that it was recovered nor that the proposed next-stage amount automatically became a saving. It describes a decision to stop at a particular point.

## Respect the history without letting it decide

The strongest emotional part of a continuation argument may concern work that has already been done. Colleagues have invested effort and developed knowledge that feels valuable because it is valuable. A strategist should not treat that attachment as evidence that people are incapable of making a considered decision. The history may contain useful information, relationships or capabilities. The question is whether those contributions make the proposed next commitment worthwhile on its current basis, not whether the earlier work deserved to happen.

In the solar discussion, US$8.2 million made the history concrete. It also risked becoming a reason that seemed to answer the future question without actually doing so. If the next stage lacked a credible commercial proposition, the fact that the institution had already spent money did not supply it. I wanted the recommendation to separate those statements. We could acknowledge the expense and the effort while still asking what the additional US$22 million was intended to achieve and why that next proposition fitted the institution’s direction.

That separation made the discussion more difficult in a useful way. It removed the comfort of saying that continuation would vindicate the past. It also prevented withdrawal from becoming an implicit judgement that every earlier decision had been wrong. Development involves learning, and a later decision can differ because the account has changed. The public case should state the stage and evidence relevant to the choice, rather than force the whole history into a simple story of either persistent vision or belated correction.

## The case for continuing deserves a fair hearing

The project sponsors believed further work might recover the opportunity. They worried that withdrawal would discard accumulated knowledge and weaken credibility with people who had invested in the proposal. Those concerns belonged in the strategic account. A general statement about sunk cost would not answer whether a revised commercial approach had merit or whether the institution had responsibilities that needed attention before it stopped. The appropriate project, commercial, legal and financial owners needed to assess those matters.

My objection was narrower: previous spending could not stand in for the missing basis of the next commitment. If the sponsors had a revised proposition, it needed to be described and examined as such. The institution should know which conditions had changed, what the new stage would establish and what it would still leave unresolved. That is different from asking colleagues to keep working primarily because stopping would make the earlier effort uncomfortable to explain. The next decision needs its own account of purpose.

We ultimately withdrew before construction. The choice gave up the possibility that further development might have produced a viable revised proposition. I wanted that possibility retained rather than removed retrospectively from the story. A reader should be able to understand why capable sponsors preferred continuation and why the institution chose otherwise. The decision is more assessable when the alternative remains plausible. Presenting it as an obvious error would make the profile sound more certain while teaching the visitor less about the judgement involved.

The human consequence also deserved attention. Colleagues needed an explanation that respected their work without implying that effort creates a right to additional capital. Strategy should help make that explanation coherent. The account can acknowledge what was learned, state why the next step no longer fits and identify the responsibilities associated with stopping. It need not promise that everyone will agree or that the institution will recover every useful element of the work. Those would be further claims requiring their own evidence.

## Describe the stop at its actual scale

The proposal was 300 MW, but the case did not produce 300 MW of operating capacity. It also did not establish an emissions reduction or a customer-supply result. The size of the potential project should not be borrowed to make the stop sound like a delivered asset. Similarly, the proposed US$22 million stage is not automatically a saving. The example does not provide a complete comparison of alternative uses, obligations and outcomes. I prefer to leave that financial conclusion unstated rather than add a number that the record cannot support.

The actual result was withdrawal before construction, with US$8.2 million historical development expense retained in the account. Project, legal, commercial, finance and capital owners remained responsible for the consequences. My contribution was to make the strategic recommendation and its basis clear. That may sound narrower than a claim about value preserved, but it is more faithful to what the example establishes. Leadership can be shown through the quality of the decision account without assigning a quantified benefit to every choice.

For a board reader, I would frame the question around the next commitment and the responsibilities of stopping. What proposition is management now asking the institution to support? Which assumptions make it credible? What does withdrawal require the company to address? The board should hear the specialists and the sponsors before reaching a collective view. A director’s experience with a similar situation can improve the questions, but it does not establish the answer for a different project or give the director authority to operate the development programme.

This solar proposal and the people involved are invented. A real public explanation would need accurate status, permission to discuss the project and professional review of financial or contractual consequences. The argument is that a leader can respect the work already done while still requiring the next stage to make sense. The history belongs in the record. It should help the institution understand the choice, rather than silently decide a future commitment whose commercial basis must be assessed on its own terms.