The journal · Portfolio evidence and ambition

Fourteen initiatives can carry fourteen different kinds of uncertainty

I explore why early development activities and extensions of established medicines need a shared strategic discussion without being presented as equivalent portfolio positions.

A portfolio summary often needs a unit that allows different activities to sit together. Initiative is a convenient word because it can include work at many stages without deciding in advance how that work will develop. The convenience becomes a problem when the reader begins to treat the shared word as evidence of shared maturity. Fourteen initiatives may be fourteen real undertakings while supporting very different conclusions about the business. A useful strategic account should let them be discussed together without making their uncertainty appear interchangeable.

Our fictional 2021 review at Vaurenne Therapeutics examined fourteen initiatives, comprising nine early development activities and five extensions of established medicines. The original progress-card format made the total easy to grasp but gave insufficient weight to the difference in stage. We spent C$1.3 million on portfolio analysis and revised the account. The purpose was not to declare the nine earlier activities less deserving of attention. It was to stop the convenience of a single collection from implying that every item represented a comparable product or commercial position.

## An initiative is a useful count, not a common level of evidence

Counting is not the same as comparing. A count can establish how many activities are under consideration, which may be useful for organising work or describing the range of questions facing management. It does not establish what each activity has demonstrated. In pharmaceuticals, a commercial strategist needs particular care around that distinction. Scientific, medical, regulatory and financial judgements have their own qualified owners. I should not use the language of strategy to assign conclusions that the relevant evidence and responsible professionals have not supplied.

The early activities and the established-medicine extensions belonged in the portfolio account for different reasons. The former represented possible future directions under examination. The latter started from established medicines but still involved work and questions specific to the proposed extensions. Neither description is a claim about clinical success or permission. The corporate account needed to retain the difference while allowing management to explain why each group mattered to the business. A single total could remain, provided it did not replace that explanation.

I also wanted to avoid a false precision in response to the original simplicity. It would have been possible to build an apparently more sophisticated aggregate by assigning probabilities or values to every item. That was not my role in this case, and the available fictional record does not justify those numbers. A strategic description can become more exact by stating which conclusions remain uncertain and who is responsible for assessing them. It does not always become more useful by converting every difference into a figure that can be added to the others.

## Uncertainty need not remove an activity from the strategy

The sponsors of the early work worried that a separate presentation would make their activities appear marginal. They wanted the institution to recognise the effort and possible importance of those directions. I took that concern seriously. If a portfolio account gives attention only to work that already resembles the current business, it may fail to explain how the company is thinking about its future. The response to uncertainty should not automatically be silence, exclusion or a requirement that an early activity pretend to be more mature before it can be heard.

My position was that the earlier work deserved an account on its own terms. What question was it helping the company explore? What evidence had been obtained, what remained unresolved and which professional assessment would inform the next business choice? Those questions can support a strategic conversation without declaring an outcome. They also give the sponsors a more credible way to explain the activity than asking the reader to infer its value from its position beside established work. The distinction can protect the ambition from a claim it cannot yet sustain.

The established-medicine extensions likewise needed more than an assumption that their category made every uncertainty small. The existing medicine supplied context, not a substitute for the evidence relevant to the extension. The appropriate specialists needed to explain what could responsibly be concluded. I wanted the corporate account to preserve that responsibility while helping management understand the business choices that followed. A distinction in stage is useful when it improves interpretation, not when it becomes a new shorthand that allows one group to escape proper examination.

The revised description was less compact than the original fourteen-card headline. It required separate discussion and made it harder to carry one aggregate measure into every audience. That inconvenience was real. The work of strategy includes deciding which simplifications remain useful and which have begun to alter the meaning of the evidence. In this case, we accepted the additional explanation because the shared format had invited an unsupported comparison. The cost was more than the C$1.3 million analysis expense; it was also the effort needed to communicate a qualified story consistently.

## The board should hear the distinction behind the total

For a board reader, the central concern is what decision the account supports. A total number of initiatives may signal activity without explaining the commitment requested or the uncertainty management is asking the institution to accept. I would want the different stages, specialist conclusions and proposed next steps to be understandable before the board treated the collection as a source of future business. That does not require directors to replace professional assessment. It requires the materials to make the relationship between that assessment and the corporate proposal clear enough for scrutiny.

I would also preserve the limits of what the review achieved. The fictional outcome was a more qualified strategic description, not a product approval, a clinical result or a measured increase in commercial value. Those outcomes would require their own evidence. On a leadership website, it can be tempting to turn an improved decision process into a larger performance claim because the latter sounds more impressive. I think the narrower result is worth explaining. Helping an institution understand what it is actually comparing can be a substantial contribution even when the future remains unresolved.

The lesson reaches beyond pharmaceuticals without making their professional requirements generic. Many businesses discuss activities that differ in maturity and evidence. A common label can help organise them, but it should not settle the comparison. In my invented portfolio, nine early activities and five established-medicine extensions belonged in the same strategic conversation with their differences intact. That is the account I would want to prepare: enough coherence for the institution to choose, enough qualification for it to understand the uncertainty it is choosing alongside the ambition.