Leela VardhaneChief Strategy Officer

The journal · Freight demand diversification

Another industry can bring the same peak back into the network

I consider a sector-growth proposal whose seasonal shape mattered alongside its larger revenue forecast, and why a different label did not settle the diversification claim.

A customer portfolio can look more varied when its industry labels become more varied. That may describe a useful change, but it does not settle every question about diversification. In freight, different goods can still require movement in the same period or direction. I want the institution to state which dimension it is trying to change before a new sector name is treated as evidence that the network has become more balanced. The label should follow the relevant demand account, not replace it.

At the fictional Navrathin Logistics, a 2017 consumer-packaging opportunity modelled ₹180 crore annual revenue. Sixty-two per cent of its forecast activity fell in October to December, alongside an existing peak. We prioritised an industrial-spares opportunity with a smaller ₹92 crore modelled annual revenue figure and a different movement pattern. Four new customers subsequently generated ₹27 crore actual service income in FY 2018-19. The choice and result need those distinctions: industry, timing, forecast and realised business each say something different.

## Choose the dimension before using the diversification label

The consumer-packaging proposal did add another customer category to the discussion. I did not want to deny that simply because the season overlapped. The institution could legitimately value entry into a new sector for reasons beyond smoothing demand. My concern was with the stronger inference that the new label would necessarily make the freight pattern more varied in the way the network needed. The proposal's timing suggested a different account, one in which sector variety and seasonal concentration existed together.

That required the paper to describe the existing pattern as well as the opportunity. A forecast can only be understood as an addition to a portfolio if the reader can see what it is being added to. The responsible operating and commercial teams needed to explain the relevant period and demands. Strategy could then ask whether the institution wanted the overlap knowingly, including what experience or capabilities might make that concentration attractive. The purpose was to make the comparison more complete rather than automatically favour whichever proposal appeared more evenly spread.

I was careful about the meaning of the 62% figure. It described the forecast activity in the stated period within this invented proposal. It did not by itself establish a future operational problem or tell the reader the financial result of accepting the work. Those conclusions would require additional evidence. A strategic account should not replace an overconfident diversification claim with an equally overconfident claim that a seasonal overlap makes an opportunity unsuitable. The measure identifies a question the institution needs to assess.

The same principle applies to the supposedly steadier alternative. A different pattern is not a benefit independent of its customer requirements, price, cost and fit. The institution needs a reason to value that difference in its own circumstances. Otherwise, diversification becomes a word used to praise the preferred option rather than a description of what changes. I wanted the decision to survive without relying on the assumption that less seasonal demand must always be commercially superior.

## Keep the larger opportunity in the comparison

The sponsors of consumer packaging had a strong case. The modelled revenue was larger, and they believed the company understood the busy period well enough to serve it. Existing familiarity could make the overlap manageable rather than simply adding strain. Entering the sector might also develop customer relationships the institution wanted. I retained those arguments because the selected industrial-spares direction needed to be assessed against the best account of the alternative, not a caricature of growth that ignored every operating consideration.

Prioritising the ₹92 crore modelled opportunity gave up the larger headline. It also required the company to learn a different set of customer requirements instead of relying entirely on familiar peak-period work. Those consequences belonged in the decision. I did not describe the choice as refusing growth. It was a decision about which growth pattern deserved priority, with the institution accepting a smaller forecast in exchange for a proposition whose timing and network relationship it wanted to examine further.

The operating assessment remained essential. A strategy function can compare demand patterns, but it cannot infer from a chart that the network is ready to undertake the new work. Commercial terms and the actual service requirements had to be addressed by their owners. I wanted the strategic account to show where those assessments entered the choice. That is how a proposal becomes more than an elegant comparison of annual totals and monthly bars.

The decision also needed a time boundary. Prioritising industrial spares did not establish a permanent objection to consumer packaging or to seasonal customers. A different network position or better-supported proposal could justify another choice later. I find public leadership accounts become less useful when a situated decision is turned into a universal principle after it has been made. The important principle here was to make the demand dimension explicit, not to declare that one industry or one seasonal pattern should always receive preference.

## Separate the chosen model from the business realised

Four new customers produced ₹27 crore actual service income in FY 2018-19. That result was meaningful but narrower than the ₹92 crore modelled annual opportunity. I reported it as realised business at a stated period rather than imply the whole forecast had been delivered. The gap between an opportunity model and the result is part of the record. It gives the institution something to assess about progress without either claiming success at the model's full scale or dismissing the business that did materialise.

The outcome did not demonstrate that the peak had disappeared, that margin improved or that every new customer's demands fitted perfectly. Those were not results established by the invented case. The choice introduced a different commercial pattern and produced income from four customers. Further operating and financial conclusions would require their own evidence. The account should remain precise enough that a reader knows where the example ends and where additional questions begin.

Every company, customer and amount in this essay is fictional. An actual comparison would need verified forecast assumptions, income definitions and permission to describe the business. The lesson is to name the dimension of diversification before celebrating it. A new sector can be attractive while bringing back the same peak, and a smaller opportunity can be worth prioritising without becoming a universal answer. The leader's contribution is to make that choice intelligible through the demand the network is being asked to carry.