Case 01
Rebuilding the revenue account around when the solar asset would generate
An 80MW solar proposal used expected annual output of 160GWh and a EUR72/MWh annual market-price assumption. The multiplication produced EUR11.52 million revenue before other costs. The development team wanted to use that figure in the investment paper because it was consistent with a familiar market reference. I asked whether it represented the prices likely to coincide with the asset's actual production profile.
Technical and commercial colleagues examined the hourly assumptions and contract possibilities. The generation-weighted price in the revised uncontracted scenario was EUR54/MWh, implying EUR8.64 million on the same expected output. The EUR2.88 million difference was a change in the planning account, not an observed loss or a reduction in physical generation. It showed that the original average and the asset's forecast output did not belong together in the way the paper had assumed.
We then assessed a contract covering 25 per cent of actual generation at EUR62/MWh, with the remaining output exposed to the modelled market profile. On expected annual generation, that meant 40GWh at the fixed price and 120GWh at the EUR54/MWh assumption, giving EUR8.96 million before other costs. The arrangement was based on the specified share of actual output, not a promise to deliver a fixed forecast volume regardless of weather. Commercial and legal colleagues reviewed its detailed terms.
The board deferred the construction commitment while the project was reworked around that revenue view and its financing implications. The contract arrangement was agreed subject to the project's stated development conditions. We did not report EUR8.96 million as earned revenue or imply that the fixed-price portion removed all project risk. Output, curtailment, costs and the remaining market exposure still mattered.
The development team accepted additional work and a slower approval timetable rather than retain the higher opening figure. My contribution was to ask whether the price assumption described the energy we expected to produce. A more detailed forecast is still uncertain, but it should at least be built from components that can sensibly occur together.
I would put the generation profile beside the proposed revenue assumptions at the start of appraisal, before an annual energy total gives the investment a misleading simplicity.