Felix Valserin

The journal · Storage investment

One battery cannot be scheduled in two incompatible ways

Several revenue opportunities may belong in a storage case, but their combined forecast must respect the same asset's operating constraints and contractual obligations.

Storage proposals can bring several attractive revenue stories into the same investment meeting. One describes buying and selling energy at different times. Another describes providing services that require the asset to be ready when called. Each may be credible within its own assumptions. The difficult question is whether the same battery can fulfil both sets of obligations in the way the financial model implies. A board should not accept the sum merely because the individual lines have persuasive explanations. It needs to understand the operating schedule that connects them.

This is not an argument that a storage asset must earn money in only one way. Multiple sources of value can be compatible and may be central to the proposition. The concern is the treatment of compatibility as an assumption that nobody owns. Physical capacity, available energy, connection limits, state of charge and commercial commitments all affect what the asset can do. Finance does not need to become the dispatch engineer. It does need enough explanation from the relevant specialists to know that the combined revenue forecast describes one feasible asset rather than several imaginary versions operating independently.

Ask what the asset must do

Our 2026 proposal concerned a 40MW, 80MWh battery with EUR28 million of construction expenditure. The first commercial account combined EUR4.1 million from energy trading with EUR2.7 million from services, giving EUR6.8 million of expected annual revenue. Those numbers came from separate assessments. Before using the total in the investment case, we asked how the trading activity and service commitments would share the equipment through time. That question required more than checking whether each revenue source was available in the market. It required a joint account of operation.

The distinction between power and energy capacity was a useful starting point for directors. The proposal's MW and MWh figures described different aspects of capability. They did not by themselves establish how often the battery could perform a particular service, what charge would be available at a given time or what the connection arrangements would permit. We asked the technical team to explain those limits in the context of the proposed activities. The board paper then translated the implications into the commercial case without suggesting that a simple duration calculation settled the operating question.

Commercial obligations also needed to be read together. A service commitment might require availability that affects an energy-trading opportunity, while the chosen trading pattern might change the energy available for a later obligation. The exact relationship depends on the arrangements under consideration. We avoided a universal claim that one revenue category always excludes another. Instead, the team described the specific assumptions used for this proposal and the circumstances in which the model would change its dispatch choice. That made the discussion both more accurate and more useful for deciding what further evidence to commission.

Compare a combined schedule with separate forecasts

The joint dispatch analysis produced EUR4.9 million of forecast revenue under the case examined. After EUR1.2 million of operating and market-access costs, the paper showed EUR3.7 million before finance, tax and further lifecycle allowances. We did not call that figure free cash flow. The distinction was necessary because an abbreviated margin label could easily travel into a return calculation or shareholder conversation with a stronger meaning than the underlying model supported. Clear naming helped preserve the limits of the analysis as the proposal moved between audiences.

The EUR1.9 million difference from the earlier combined forecast was not an operating loss. The asset did not yet exist. It was a revision to the expected revenue after the proposed activities were considered together. That revision reduced the apparent attractiveness of immediate construction, but it also improved the quality of the opportunity we were evaluating. A project team should not be punished for producing a more coherent model. If every downward revision is treated as failure, people learn to protect an attractive first estimate instead of improving it before capital is committed.

We examined what drove the difference and whether it reflected a permanent incompatibility, a chosen operating assumption or missing information. That distinction shaped the next work. A constraint that can be addressed through a different commercial arrangement deserves a different response from a physical limit that cannot. Similarly, an uncertain connection condition should not be represented as a confirmed restriction or silently assumed away. The board needed a short account of the main dependencies and the work capable of resolving them. More spreadsheet detail alone would not have answered the decision in front of it.

The comparison also had to use a consistent cost basis. A more realistic revenue estimate paired with an incomplete account of operating requirements would still be inadequate. We identified which costs were included in the EUR1.2 million and which remained outside the displayed contribution. Further lifecycle allowances required attention before an investment return could be represented as complete. The aim was not to bury the opportunity beneath a list of every possible concern. It was to prevent a partially developed contribution figure from acquiring the authority of a finished investment case.

Buy evidence before buying the full project

The board withheld the EUR28 million construction commitment and approved EUR240,000 for dispatch and connection studies. Those studies were still in progress at the point described. We therefore had no completed asset, operating revenue or realised return to report. The decision bought a better basis for judging the proposal. It did not save EUR28 million in the sense of reducing an existing expenditure obligation, and it did not establish that the project would ultimately be rejected. Preserving that distinction is part of giving an honest account of executive judgement.

The study approval needed its own discipline. A smaller amount can escape scrutiny because it appears modest beside the construction request. We asked what questions the work would answer, who would assess the findings and what decision would follow. If the studies merely produced more general support for storage, they would not have served their purpose. The board wanted evidence about this asset, its connection and the proposed combination of commercial activities. A defined return to the investment discussion kept the work connected to the choice for which it had been commissioned.

Development colleagues remained entitled to argue for the opportunity. Finance's role was to make the capital account coherent, not to replace commercial ambition with automatic refusal. We discussed the cost of waiting and the risk that a changed timetable could affect the proposal. Those costs belonged beside the benefit of better information. A staged decision is useful only when the evidence gained can justify the time and money spent obtaining it. That is why I prefer a specific question and a review date to a vague request for further comfort.

The wider lesson is that a board should ask how a proposed asset earns its combined revenue before asking how attractive the total looks. Several credible opportunities do not necessarily form one credible operating plan when added together. The same principle can appear elsewhere, but storage makes it especially tangible: there is one physical installation, one changing state of charge and a set of obligations that must fit. A good financial account helps directors see that shared reality and decide whether the next commitment is warranted by the evidence available.