This letter / 01
Insurance decisions with a traceable record
Canadian insurers are licensing wildfire models faster than they are correcting where their policyholders' homes actually stand. A model run on postal-code locations produces confident numbers about the wrong houses. Exposure data should come first, and the model's limits should travel with every price it sets.
Most of the wildfire conversations I have had with Canadian underwriters over the last three years began with a vendor's hazard map and ended with a question about price. I think the order is wrong. An insurer that cannot place each home it covers within a few metres of its roof, and say what the home is built from and how far it stands from continuous forest fuel, should not yet be using a wildfire model to price that home. It should be fixing the address. Once it has a model, it should write the model's known limits into the underwriting file in plain sentences, so that nobody downstream mistakes a modelled number for a measured one.
