Beatrice Marivelle

The journal · Employment predictability in logistics

The rota is part of what the employer is offering

Pay is only one part of a transport employment proposition. The ability to understand the coming week also depends on the cover, authority and commercial choices behind the rota.

A recruitment conversation can describe pay, equipment and career opportunities in considerable detail while saying very little about how often the employee will be asked to rearrange the coming week. In transport, variability is real. Freight volumes change, customers alter requirements and an operating plan can be disrupted for reasons outside the employer’s control. That does not make the experience of time irrelevant to the employment offer. A person needs to understand what the company can commit to and what kinds of change they should reasonably expect.

I do not argue for an impossible promise that a rota will never move. I argue for examining the decisions behind the movement. Some changes arise from unusual disruption. Others recur because the operation has not funded enough cover, because commercial commitments arrive late or because nobody has authority to resolve a predictable conflict. Treating all of these as the same unavoidable feature of logistics makes it difficult to improve the parts management can influence. It also asks employees to accept a general explanation where a more specific answer is possible.

A change has a cost beyond the visible hours

The planner sees a revised start time. The employee may see a different journey to work, a care arrangement to renegotiate or a personal commitment that can no longer be kept. Those consequences do not automatically make the change unreasonable, but they belong in the decision. An organisation that considers only the paid hours can underestimate what it is asking of people. Repeated flexibility may then be described as a quality of the workforce rather than recognised as an operating dependency the company has chosen to rely on.

In the fictional Valserenne Logistics review, two depots examined the arrangements of 286 drivers in 2020. The weekly rota existed, yet employees could not depend on it as much as the document suggested. One eight-week period contained 114 changes after the original arrangement was shared. We did not begin by assuming that every change was avoidable. We asked where the changes came from, who approved them and what alternatives had been considered. That moved the discussion from a complaint about flexibility to a set of decisions management could examine.

Operations colleagues had legitimate concerns. A rigid arrangement could leave the business unable to respond to a customer or an unexpected absence. Drivers also understood that the work varied. The disagreement concerned how much of the recurring uncertainty should be carried through individual requests and how much should be supported through the staffing model. A useful employment conversation needs to reach that question. Otherwise the company risks offering a nominally stable arrangement while managing the operation as if everyone were continuously available for revision.

We worked with employee representatives and the operating team on a proposal that included twelve relief positions, costing EUR 740,000 annually, and a clearer route for late changes. Management accepted that expenditure as part of the service arrangement. The people function helped define terms, communication and review, while operations retained responsibility for the plan and relevant transport requirements. This was not a claim that one staffing model would suit every depot or country. It was a bounded decision about two operations with a known pattern of difficulty.

Relief must match the place where uncertainty occurs

A central relief figure can sound reassuring while offering little practical help. Cover must be available in the right location, at the right time and with the appropriate capability. A person who can support one part of the operation may not be a substitute for another. These are matters for operating and transport professionals to define. The people function contributes by making the employment arrangement possible and ensuring that the cost and practical constraints are understood. It should not turn a headcount approval into a claim that every dependency has been resolved.

Our review would have benefited from involving dispatch teams earlier. They could see where the proposed cover would be difficult to use and where a recurring change was linked to a customer pattern rather than a general shortage. Their knowledge helped refine the arrangement. This is a recurring lesson in distributed work: the person who experiences the variability often has a more precise account of it than the central report. That account should be examined, not accepted uncritically, but excluding it leaves the plan with an avoidable gap.

Finance also needs an honest description of the choice. Relief provision can involve paying for capacity that is not fully used at every moment. If the business wants greater predictability, some of that apparent spare capacity may be part of the cost. Management can decide that the cost is too high, change the service proposition or seek another arrangement. What it should not do is approve a promise of stability while refusing to consider the resources that would support it. The employment offer and the operating model need to describe the same business.

The issue is not solved by moving every decision into the centre. Local managers need enough authority to respond sensibly, with a clear understanding of what requires escalation. A process that forces a supervisor to wait for several distant approvals may create more uncertainty for the employee. The aim is an accountable route, not a large approval apparatus. A colleague should be able to learn who made the change, why it was necessary and where to raise a practical difficulty that has not been considered.

Explain the exceptions that remain

The next eight-week period in our fictional review recorded forty-seven late changes. That reduction was useful, but freight conditions were different, so I would not assign the whole effect to the new arrangement. We examined the remaining changes to see whether the cover was being used as intended and whether particular problems were recurring. A lower total can conceal a group of employees who continue to bear much of the variability. The review should therefore look at the distribution and explanation, not only the aggregate movement.

I also want to know what employees were told when a change could not be avoided. An honest explanation does not remove the inconvenience, but it allows the person to understand the decision and identify a consequence management may have missed. A vague request to be flexible can feel like the organisation has no obligation to explain itself. That is especially damaging when the same request arrives repeatedly and the company continues to describe the original rota as a dependable part of its employment proposition.

The current review of thirty depot-management arrangements follows that reasoning. Twenty-two have an authorisation route managers can explain; eight need revision. I would rather resolve those eight arrangements than introduce another group indicator whose meaning is uncertain locally. Reporting can help management see the pattern, but it cannot supply the missing decision-maker. The employee’s experience depends on whether the arrangement works when the next change arrives.

Predictability is therefore an employment choice with operating consequences. It may require more cover, a different commercial commitment or a clearer authority. It will still have limits. A credible employer explains those limits and distinguishes them from uncertainty it has simply declined to manage. The rota is not only an administrative output at the end of planning. It is one of the ways the company tells a person what working there will mean.