David Ellis

The journal · Organisation design

Workforce strategy starts with capability demand

A headcount plan does not explain whether an organisation can deliver its strategy.

I begin with the capabilities needed, the roles through which they will be applied and the options for building or accessing them.

That creates a richer conversation with business leaders about work design, development and partnerships. It also makes trade-offs visible when time or resources are limited. The people plan should evolve as strategic choices change, rather than follow a separate annual cycle.

Headcount persists as the main currency of workforce planning because it is easy to count and easy to budget. Finance can model it, managers can request it and the board can compare it across periods. Capability is harder to describe, so it tends to be inferred from job titles and grades that may no longer reflect the work. The result is a plan that tells the organisation how many people it can afford without telling it whether those people will be able to do what the strategy requires of them.

The practice I use is a capability conversation held before the budget round rather than after it. For each strategic priority, the business leader and I identify the few capabilities that will determine success, how they are currently provided and where the gaps are most acute. We then ask how quickly each capability is needed, how scarce it is outside the organisation and how long it would take to develop internally. Those three questions usually reveal more about the right workforce choice than any comparison of salary bands.

Consider a business that intends to offer a service built on data and analytics alongside its established products. The headcount plan proposes a small number of new specialist hires. A capability view shows something different: the specialists will be needed, but so will product managers who understand the new service, sales colleagues who can explain it and operations staff who can support it. Seen this way, the investment question changes from how many specialists to hire to how many existing roles must change, and how quickly the people in them can be helped to make that change.

A frequent objection is that capability planning is too slow and abstract for managers who need to fill roles now. The worry is fair if the exercise becomes a large taxonomy that nobody uses. I keep it deliberately narrow, focused on the capabilities that would most limit the strategy if they were missing. Urgent vacancies are still filled, but they are filled with the future shape of the role in mind. Over time, managers find that the conversation saves effort, because fewer roles need to be redefined shortly after they are filled.

This approach asks business leaders to treat workforce choices as strategic choices, owned in the same way as investment or market decisions. It asks the people function to bring evidence about the labour market, internal mobility and development lead times, rather than simply administer a process. And it asks the board to look beyond total employment cost to the question of whether the organisation is assembling the capabilities its strategy assumes. That is a harder question to answer, but it is the one that determines whether the plan is realistic.

Starting from capability demand also makes people strategy a shared discipline. Business leaders describe what the strategy needs; HR helps them understand the options to build, buy, borrow or redesign the work. The plan that emerges is owned by the business, which is the only place it can succeed.