Estelle CaldwellChief Data Officer · Essays & perspective

Field notes / Estelle Caldwell

Chief Data Officer · Canada

Dispatch 01 / Canada

Mortgage renewal risk5 min read

Bank data that notices a changing household

Canadian mortgage arrears have stayed low while terms signed at the lowest rates renew at much higher ones. Boards should read payment strain and deposit behaviour instead, use what they learn to help borrowers and to provision honestly, and keep it out of pricing.

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Portrait of Estelle Caldwell
Estelle CaldwellCanada
English · French

Open to Board appointments · Advisory roles · Speaking invitations

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The journal

Further reading.

  1. 02

    AI in credit decisions5 min read

    A fairness test cannot see the applicants your matching lost

    Fairness testing of credit models usually compares outcomes between groups at the end of the pipeline. In a bilingual market the larger harm often sits upstream, in record matching that fails more often for French names and addresses, and it usually afflicts the old process as much as the new model.

  2. 03

    Consumer-driven banking5 min read

    Under consumer-driven banking, a bank's data errors leave with the customer

    Canada's consumer-driven banking framework will let customers direct their bank to share their data with accredited participants. Banks should treat the shared fields as a product with a published quality standard and a correction route, not as an interface built to satisfy a rule.

A leadership conviction

Most of the harm I have seen data do inside a bank came from shortcuts that were sensible when someone took them and that nobody revisited: an inferred language, a matching rule, a mapping table. I try to find those shortcuts before a customer does, to say in writing which customers a number leaves out, and to put the dissent beside the recommendation when a decision goes to the board.

Total assets, Aubreuil Bank
C$52.4bn
31 October 2025; the balance sheet my office's data supports
Models in the census-based inventory
163
Up from 88 listed before the 2024 census
Customers with a confirmed language of service
96%
Up from 74% at the start of 2025

I judge a bank's data by how early it lets us notice a customer's circumstances changing, and by whether we can explain what we saw to that customer in the language they chose.

I am chief data officer of Aubreuil Bank, a federally regulated bank headquartered in Ottawa with C$52.4 billion of assets, 138 branches in Ontario, Québec and New Brunswick and about 1.3 million customers, 43% of whom prefer to be served in French. The bank appointed me its first CDO in February 2021, after four years leading its enterprise data and regulatory reporting. I lead 162 people, with an operating budget of C$38 million in fiscal 2025. I report to our president and chief executive, Danielle Ferland-Moss, and to the board's risk committee each quarter.

I started in 1999 as a mortgage underwriter at Caisse populaire Marécourt, a francophone credit union in Ottawa's east end, where within a year I was also preparing the quarterly returns to our provincial regulator. I spent four years on regulatory returns at Lachford Bank in Toronto, five building credit-risk and depositor data at Thornvale Trust Company through the financial crisis, and four and a half running mortgage portfolio analytics at Kestrelholm Mortgage Corporation before coming home to Ottawa and to Aubreuil in 2017.

The questions I work on are ones a mid-size Canadian lender cannot hand to a vendor. Which of our mortgage holders will struggle when five-year terms signed in 2020 and 2021 renew at much higher rates, and how will we know before they miss a payment? Which of our spreadsheets, scores and AI tools are models in the sense our supervisor means, and who has checked them? Does a credit model treat a borrower named Thériault as it treats one named Thompson, and if not, is the fault in the model or in the data it was given? My answers have delayed two launches, raised our loan-loss allowance and cost our marketing team a practice it valued.

A renewal register before the arrears

For 51,200 mortgages worth C$10.8 billion renewing in fiscal 2025 and 2026, we built a register of payment strain from loan and deposit data. Advisers called 4,900 households months before maturity. Ninety-day arrears in the cohort were 0.29% in June 2026, against a forecast of 0.55%.

A model inventory built by census

Our census for OSFI's revised model-risk guideline examined 274 spreadsheets, vendor scores, rules engines and AI tools. It classified 163 as models, against 88 previously listed, and we retired or rebuilt 37 spreadsheets that informed lending or treasury decisions.

Matching names before testing fairness

Testing before launch showed a small-business credit model approving French-preferring applicants 11 points less often at similar risk, because accented and compound names failed to match bureau files. We delayed launch by five months; the gap is now about 2 points.

Language recorded, not guessed

We stopped inferring customers' language of service from their surnames and asked them instead. Confirmed language rose from 74% to 96% of active customers, and complaints about communications in the wrong language fell from 1,930 a year to an annual rate of 410.

Current focus

I am preparing our customer and account data for the federal consumer-driven banking framework, beginning with the fields that will travel to other institutions when customers ask. I am also working through the validation queue our model census created, so that every high-materiality model has a named data owner and a tested lineage to its sources before OSFI's revised guideline takes effect.

Conversations I welcome

I am not seeking another executive role. I would consider one non-executive seat on a risk, audit or technology committee at an organisation outside lending that neither competes with nor borrows from Aubreuil, with our chief executive's consent. I accept a few advisory and speaking conversations each year, in English or in French.

Beyond the page

The record behind the perspective.

In the boardroom

  • Clairbourne Financial Literacy NetworkDirector; chair of the audit and finance committee · September 2022–present

Formation

  • Bachelor of Commerce in financeCollège universitaire Sainte-Héloïse · 1999
  • Master of Science in applied statistics and risk analysis, completed in evening studyAvonleigh University · 2010
When Estelle brought the model census to my committee, she put the list of things she had decided were not models on the same page as the models. That list started the most useful discussion we had all year, and two items on it did not survive.
Margaret Ellsworth-DaigleChair, risk committee, Aubreuil Bank
The full record ↗

Contact

I am not seeking another executive role. I would consider one non-executive seat on a risk, audit or technology committee at an organisation outside lending that neither competes with nor borrows from Aubreuil, with our chief executive's consent. I accept a few advisory and speaking conversations each year, in English or in French.

  • Board appointments
  • Advisory roles
  • Speaking invitations